Friday, June 5, 2009

And We're Listening to Them Why?

Apparently, a Goldman Sachs research report revising its outlook on oil helped send oil prices higher this week. From CNN:

Also supporting oil prices, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) released a research report Thursday raising its 3-month price target for crude oil to $75 a barrel from $52 a barrel. By the end of 2009, the report predicts oil will reach $85 a barrel, up from $65 a barrel. And by the end of 2010, Goldman forecasts that crude will hit $95 a barrel.

"When Goldman Sachs starts to talk bullish the market seems to move like it just got an offer that it just can't refuse," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading, in his daily research note.

This would be the brilliant analysts at Goldman Sachs that predicted this last May:

Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel.

Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient.

An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.

Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. Others disagree, arguing that prices could abruptly tumble if speculators in the market rush for the exits. But the grim calculus of Mr. Murti’s prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon.

Ummmm, oops:

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